Predicting Ecosystem Net Primary Productivity by Percolation Theory and Optimality Principle

Predicting Ecosystem Net Primary Productivity by Percolation Theory and Optimality Principle

Allen G. Hunt, Muhammad Sahimi, Behzad Ghanbarian, and German Poveda

The water balance equation divides precipitation at the Earth’s terrestrial surface into its two principal pathways: evapotranspiration (ET) and run-off (Q). Known as the “central problem of hydrology,” since Robert Horton declared that in his 1931 address to AGU, it is critical to water resources and to net primary productivity (NPP) what sustains the biosphere and mitigates global warming. Last year, we published an article on the response of streamflow to climate change in AGU Advances, from Q = P – ET, about which the editor wrote in its Eos highlight, “The contribution allows us to predict the impact of changing climatic conditions on the interplay between climate, vegetation, and water resources.” Now, our follow-up publication in WRR, shows that the same theoretical development, indeed the same result for ET, allows us to predict NPP as a function of climate variables P and PET (potential evapotranspiration) with one universal fit parameter and R2 of 0.97. The combination of these two papers effectively demonstrates solution of the central problem of hydrology.

Water Resources Research Volume60, Issue3, March 2024, e2023WR036340
Corresponding Author: Allen Hunt

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